Published in the October 24, 2018 edition

By DAN TOMASELLO

LYNNFIELD — The projected school enrollment study was presented to the School Enrollment and Capacity Exploration Committee (SECEC) on Oct. 16.

The SECEC hired the New England School Development Council (NESDEC) to conduct the enrollment study in the wake of a recent increase in elementary school enrollment, particularly at Summer Street School.

“The committee is charged with gathering and analyzing data on school enrollment projections,” said SECEC Chairman John Scenna. “That data will be used to determine if the projected enrollment will in fact require additional classroom space. If it is determined that additional space is required to support the education goals for the Lynnfield Public Schools, the committee will provide a report outlining its recommendations to the Board of Selectmen and School Committee as to the specific space requirements and their associated costs.”

NESDEC consultant Donald Kennedy gave an overview of the enrollment projections. In order to compile the report, Kennedy reviewed construction permits; home and condominium sales; interviewed Town Hall employees and realtors; examined birth rates; and analyzed the number of children currently living in multi-family housing developments. The consultant also took into account potential developments on the horizon that have not been approved.

Kennedy noted an average of 162 homes have been sold annually from 2012 to 2017. He said there have been an average of 14 condos sold annually during that time.

The consultant outlined three different scenarios that would have an impact on school enrollment. He said the first scenario projects “strong K-12 growth” even if the Sagamore Spring Golf Club does not get redeveloped. Scenarios two and three took into account whether the golf course gets redeveloped into either senior housing or single-family homes. April Town Meeting rejected the proposed Fairways Edge senior housing development project.

“The analysis of demographic information and enrollment data indicates that K-12 enrollments are likely to continue to maintain the present pace of growth supported by residential construction,” said Kennedy.

Scenna noted enrollment projections are similar to meteorologists giving weather forecasts.

“Just like the weather, things could change,” said Scenna.

Superintendent Jane Tremblay concurred with Scenna’s point of view.

“This is really forecasting,” said Tremblay. “We had six second graders move out of Summer Street this year. I didn’t see that coming. That is a lot of kids moving out of one grade level.”

After Kennedy concluded his presentation, Tremblay gave an overview of how the projected enrollment increases over the next four years would fit into existing classrooms at the elementary schools. She used the first scenario for the presentation.

Tremblay noted the School Committee’s class size guideline stipulates that kindergarten and first grade classes have between 18 and 22 students. The class size guideline for grades 2 and 3 is between 20 and 23 students, and the guideline for grade 4 is between 20 and 24 students.

The superintendent said there are 25 available classrooms at Summer Street School, which includes two preschool classrooms as well as an art room and a music room. She said there are 24 available classrooms at Huckleberry Hill, which includes an art room and a music room.

“The number of classrooms we have in the entire district is 49,” said Tremblay.

For the 2019-2020 school year, Tremblay is projecting 40 classrooms will be needed between the two schools. She projects there will be nine kindergarten classes, eight first grade classes, eight second grade classes, seven third grade classes and eight fourth grade classes.

“We should be okay for the 2019-2020 school year,” said Tremblay.

Tremblay projects there will be 43 classrooms needed for the 2020-2021 school year. She anticipates 43 classrooms will be needed for the 2021-2022 school year.

The superintendent is projecting there will be 45 classrooms needed for the 2022-2023 school year. She projects 46 classrooms will be needed for the 2023-2024 school year, which she said would be “the tightest year.”

“But with the way the schools are laid out, there are 49 classrooms,” said Tremblay. “Presumably, we should be okay.”

Reaction

In response to a question from SECEC member Kathryn Price, Tremblay recalled while she was Summer Street’s principal there was a point when the elementary school’s kindergarten class sizes were high. She said parents were given the option of sending their children to Huckleberry Hill.

“If we get to the point where there is an inequity between both schools, a lot of things could happen,” said Tremblay. “And giving parents choice is always a nice option.”

Scenna inquired if there could be an increase in preschool enrollment.

“We have never run more than two preschool classrooms,” said Tremblay.

“So two of your 49 classrooms are out every year?” Scenna asked.

“Right,” said Tremblay.

SECEC member Arthur Swanson said the projections are “going to raise a few eyebrows even though it’s within the School Committee’s class size guidelines.”

“They are approaching the maximum guidelines and many families are going to think it’s a little too high,” said Swanson. “It’s not the ideal set up for instructional purposes. It does cause some concern. It’s relatively high for the primary grades.”

SECEC member Gary Romano said he wanted to take another look at the numbers before making any recommendations to the Board of Selectmen and School Committee.

“They still feel low to me,” said Romano.

School Committee Chairman Jamie Hayman agreed.

“I am struggling a little bit with this,” said Hayman. “I feel like we are getting closer to capacity than we are making it feel here. We were literally three students away from losing an art or music room at Summer Street this year. It was held on for dear life.”

Scenna noted the 2019-2020 enrollment projections “are the most reliable statistics in the study.”

“We have next year, which is good news,” said Scenna. “It appears we are going to be okay for next year.”

“The difficulty is it’s really easy to tip the scales in the projections for 2019-2020 in terms of the preferred ratios,” said Price in response.

Tremblay agreed with Price that enrollment can change from the current projections.

“It’s like calling a snow day,” said Tremblay. “You could get a blizzard or could get two inches. You just don’t know.”

Town Administrator Rob Dolan noted the selectmen have requested the space committee to give a presentation on the enrollment projections. He suggested that the SECEC present the data in a joint Board of Selectmen and School Committee meeting.

The committee expressed its support for Dolan’s request.

After the discussion, the SECEC decided to hold off on making recommendations on whether additional classroom space should be added to the elementary schools. The SECEC plans on discussing that at a future meeting.

“The recommendation could be do something, do nothing or let’s hold,” said Scenna.