Trying to guess a first round pick

Published in the April 23, 2020 edition.

By DAN PAWLOWSKI

Why even bother spending any time talking about it?

Imagining Rob Gronkowski spiking perfectly-led Tom Brady darts into Tampa pay dirt? It’s depressing.

But it’s also…kind of awesome isn’t it?

Sure, it hurts. Gronk bailed and left the Patriots in a difficult spot with no leverage in a trade.

But in the big picture, not many fans really know what it’s like to trade ultimate professional success for herniated discs.

It was fun – some of the best memories of our lives – and it’s unprecedented. Two legends retiring immediately to the Hall of Fame having worn only your jersey means a lot to a fan base.

But as the saying goes, if you love something… I know, I know, blah, blah, blah.

It’s over. Brady and Gronk are going to have some fun this year. Patriots fans might as well enjoy the Red Zone ride. Those two have earned that much at least.

Now, what else is there to do but play the ever-losing game of guessing who the Pats will pick tonight?

The
far-fetched
Tua/Herbert dream 

There have been plenty of rumors surrounding the Patriots taking a quarterback early in the draft. The general consensus is that if Tua Tagovailoa or Justin Herbert fall to 10 or below, the Pats might have a shot at them.

But moving from New England’s number 23 into the top five or six is basically impossible and even a trade into the top 10 is not something Bill Belichick has historically done. He’s moved up four times in the first round before, the most being 11 picks up for Daniel Graham in 2002.

The Patriots have too many holes to turn No. 23 and three or four mid-round picks into one player specifically Tagovailoa who has legitimate injury concerns. (Unless of course they truly believe Tua or Herbert to be bonafide franchise quarterbacks. Maybe they do. Isn’t this fun?)

But don’t count on either to slip past six let alone 10. Three QB’s have gone in the top seven in each of the last two drafts. It should have been three years in a row with plenty of teams wishing for a do-over in 2016 when Patrick Mahomes (10) and Deshaun Watson (12) slipped even a little bit.

Can you imagine what Bears fans feel like watching those two with Mitchell Trubisky (No. 2 in ‘16) throwing perfect passes to popcorn vendors at Soldier Field?

I graduated from DePaul in Chicago that year. There used to be a guy who came in to the bar I worked at and every time would sit down, put his hands over his face and dejectedly say in a half Jon Gruden, half Bill Swerski’s superfans accent: “Let me tell ya, dat Jay Cutler is da worst quarterbehck I’ve seen since Craig Krenzel.” He’d insert a different name of some poor former Bear signal caller every time.

I’d say now, when Patriots fans are feeling the worst they’ve felt in decades, is a great time for some perspective.

Unexpected things always happen in the draft but the Patriots have probably spent the most time on a game plan that revolves around what to do with pick No. 23.

I’d still be willing to bet that gets traded…back. The Pats have an incredible amount of holes. If they can turn their first pick into multiple players, they’ll do it.

After all this Twilight Zone stuff, it might be comforting for Pats fans to see something familiar.

Bill Belichick has a reputation for trading back but he also pulls the trigger on plenty of two-for-ones to move up in the second or third rounds if he really likes someone and thinks another team will pounce. (Which is how he got Gronk in the first place, trading up two spots in the second round in 2010 to leap the tight end-needy Ravens).

The hoodie’s draft day trades aren’t always Gary Player-approach-shot-beautiful, but sometimes he gets close to the pin and every now and then jots down an eagle.

That’s what makes predicting his picks a futile game. It’s not as easy as projecting what players will be around with their first six picks (23, 87, 98, 100, 125, 139).

If that were the case, we could assume their needs and pick a guy in that range.

Of those six picks lets’ say they could take two defensive front seven guys, a tight end, a wide receiver, an offensive lineman and maybe a safety. That’s not even counting a kicker or a quarterback. All those needs makes it likely we see more trades back than forward. At that point, who knows who will be available? We won’t. Belichick will. Maybe it’s some Californian hanging ten in the 6th round.

With
the
23rd
pick
in
the
2020
NFL
Draft

Of Belichick’s 18 first round picks, eight have been either defensive linemen or linebackers. Some of them turned into franchise legends like Richard Seymour, 2001 (N0. 6), Vince Wilfork, 2004 (No. 21), Jerod Mayo, 2008 (No. 10) and Dont’a Hightower, 2012 (N0. 25) and some became great players like Chandler Jones, 2012 (No. 21) and Ty Warren, 2003, (No. 13).

Despite what you might hear in a tough sports radio market, Belichick is not a poor drafter compared to the rest of the league. Everyone misses. Yes, for every Seymour you get to mention Dominique Easley. But it’s better to look at it more like a batting average. And he has proven he can hit homers like anyone else, especially on guys in the front seven.

So, if Belichick’s bread and butter is finding talented linemen and linebackers, I’m hoping we get to see him take one at 23, whether it’s a linebacker like Oklahoma’s Kenneth Murray or LSU’s Patrick Queen, an edge rusher like Iowa’s AJ Epenesa, Penn State’s Yetur Gross-Matos or Wisconsin’s Zach Baun or a defensive tackle like TCU’s Ross Blacklock. If the Pats take someone in that group, odds are they will develop into at least a steady starter.

There are plenty of other options.

They could dive into a deep pool of talented offensive linemen. Top tackles like Tristan Wirfs, Andrew Thomas, Jedrick Wills, Jr. and Mekhi Becton will all likely be off the board but center/guard Cesar Ruiz of Michigan should be in play as could tackles like Houston’s Josh Jones, Isaiah Wilson (Georgia), Ezra Cleveland (Boise State) or Austin Jackson (USC). The Pats could use any of them.

At first glance, interior line seems like the more needy position with the uncertainty surrounding center David Andrews’ blood clot issues and guard Joe Thuney’s contract but they could easily take a tackle and shift Isaiah Wynn inside if need be.

The Pats could put their tight end problems to rest with Notre Dame’s Cole Kmet which would certainly qualify as a reach but he’s the best in the draft at his position. Ultimately, I expect them to wait on tight end and receiver because there seem to be some intriguing options available in the 3rd and 4th rounds.

Patriots beat writer Jeff Howe thinks the Pats might trade up in the first for speedy wide receiver Henry Ruggs from Alabama. He could be a gamebreaker and whoever the new QB is could definitely use a weapon like that to take the pressure off. It would be intriguing but shocking considering again it would cost multiple picks.

That same line of “let’s wait” thinking could be applied to defensive linemen, linebackers and offensive linemen in a draft some scouts say is the deepest in recent memory.

As for safeties there are some solid ones that could be around in the 3rd and 4th, but one is the clear-cut best.

Safety isn’t as big a need as the front seven, especially with Devin McCourty still playing at a high level and one of the league’s best group of cornerbacks around to bail out the secondary if need be. But safety has always been one of, if not the most, vital positions in Belichick’s camp. Maybe he considers Alabama’s Xavier McKinney to be the heir apparent to McCourty. McKinney’s main strengths are versatility, instincts and ball skills. Sound familiar?

He’s projected right around where the Patriots are picking so he won’t be around later if they trade back.

You know who would be around if they trade back? More quarterbacks. Maybe not Utah State’s Jordan Love who is currently expected to go in the first round but do the Pats think Oklahoma’s Jalen Hurts, Washington’s Jacob Eason or Georgia’s Jake Fromm are franchise guys? If they aren’t sure, I don’t see why they should draft one. They already have that guy in Jarrett Stidham. Unless they’re confidant one of those guys, or a dark horse like FIU’s James Morgan, is their answer, then they shouldn’t waste a pick that could be used to shore up depth in other spots.

Anyways, hope this clears it up for you. Happy draft night! Remember to mute the TV for those inevitable Brady/Gronk segment(s).