Why recent history tells us the winner will be an offensive juggernaut
By DAN PAWLOWSKI
Welcome to the madness.
It used to be that picking a National Champion was hard work. But thanks to reigning champ and No. 1 overall seed UConn, it turns out you have a better chance of nailing your 2024 forecast than Boston’s weather professionals predicting a nor’easter.
If you really want to win, pencil in the Huskies to repeat now and go ahead to page 12 for some sudoku action. At least in that game, the numbers lead to order. In college basketball, numbers usually just lead to more chaos.
Maybe you’ve done some research for your bracket this year. Maybe you’ve spent some time on ever-popular analytics websites like KenPom and Barttorvik to try and run the numbers. Maybe you’ve seen stats like this: “Since 2002, the men’s National Champion has been ranked Top 40 in KenPom’s adjusted offense and Top 25 in adjusted defense.” As if it’s news that you need a complete team to win.
Yes, using advanced stats to predict a champ is a futile and stupid gesture…but often it’s the best option we have.
If you’re at all curious to find some patterns of recent national champions, join me on this trivial trip. If not, again, Huskies and sudoku, page 12.
Offense taken
Basketball junkies like myself hate to admit it – probably because most of us identify as “3 and D” wings…who can’t shoot – but defense doesn’t dominate in the big dance. That’s not to say you don’t need it. Poor defensive teams don’t win it all and sometimes (hello, 2019 Virginia and 2016 Villanova) the champs do play elite D. But if you’re looking for answers in the numbers, it’s the teams with the best offensive stats that raise the trophy. After all, how many charges do you see on “One Shining Moment?”
Again, admitting this for a professional floor diver at YMCA pickup games is like reluctantly accepting that the recently snubbed and morally compass-less Rick Pitino is a good coach. We don’t like it, but it’s true.
After all, did you catch any of that Virginia-Colorado State game last night? I really hope not. It was proof that defense-only teams like UVA have N-O chance of impacting March Madness. (Remember, that ’19 UVA team had elite shot makers…same as ’16 ‘Nova. Shoutout Kris Jenkins).
Running the regular season numbers on Barttorvik for each of the National Champions since 2015 has shown really just one, can’t-miss fact: They have all ranked in the top 10 in adjusted offense.
Now, this doesn’t necessarily mean they were the highest scoring teams. The numbers are weighted to account for everything from pace of play to strength of schedule. But if you believe in that process, then the one thing you can’t deny is that your 2024 champion will be among the best-rated offensive teams in the country.
The average national ranking in offense from that Duke team in ’15 to last year’s UConn is 4.75. The average defensive ranking is 20.8. The only champs who fit into the top 10 best defenses in the country were the aforementioned ‘Hoos and ‘Cats. With that knowledge, which will surely not be busted this time around, let’s look at the top-ranked offensive teams from the regular season and pick that winner already.
No. 1 and 2: UConn and Purdue
Surprise, surprise. Again, the Huskies are unquestionably the belles of the ball. The main thing separately them from other teams consistently placed at the top this season, like Purdue, is balance. The Boilermakers have the player of the year in big man Zach Edey. The Huskies have everything else. Purdue will need their young guards to step into star roles in order win it all. Certainly possible. UConn on the other hand, has what every team is now feverishly searching for in whatever portal you can think off: offensive variance.
Final Four teams need to win any type of game. Bad shooting nights happen. UConn has the depth and sort of pieces that can fit into any type of puzzle. No other team in the country can say that. The champions of the last decade didn’t just have strong guards which everyone claims is the recipe for March Madness success. They had dynamic guards, forwards and bigs. No matter what their plan A was, whether they play through the post first (like Duke with Jahlil Okafor) or encourage their guards to let if fly (like Baylor in ’21), the best squads also have a Plan B or C, or…well, you get it. Whether they generally play fast like UNC in ’17 or Kansas in ’22 or slow like Villanova and Virginia, the best of the best always adapt.
No. 3-6: Alabama, Illinois, Kentucky, Baylor
Here’s the thing, you can pick UConn and maybe win a couple of your bracket pools. But where’s the fun in that? The Final Four is usually complete chaos anyways.
So, let’s look at more elite offenses. This grouping of four is unique in that they have the aforementioned offensive versatility, but none of them qualify as good defensive teams, let alone elite.
I know, I know, I’m supposed to let the defense go. With today’s pace and space style that more and more teams are adopting, we’ll surely see a champion with poor defensive metrics at some point. Thankfully, I don’t think we’re there yet. Again, the champs of the last decade have still averaged out to be at least strong and sometimes top-notch on the defensive end. You always need that big stop when it matters most. That’s why, despite the scoring talent, it’s tough to take Alabama (No. 102 adjusted defense), Illinois (No. 87), Kentucky (No. 116) and Baylor (No. 81) seriously as actual contenders.
No. 7-8: Arizona and Auburn
Now, we’re talking. Arizona and Auburn were the only teams in the country to rank in the top 10 in both offense and defense this year according to Barttorvik. Of course, Auburn, who would have to get through UConn at the TD Garden in the East Region, has the tougher road to Phoenix. As for Arizona? They have balance, senior leadership and elite shot-makers. They fit the bill to make it home for the Final Four.
No. 9-12: BYU, Gonzaga, Duke, Creighton
This foursome fares better defensively than the 3-6 group. I just wonder if they have the same depth and versatility. Creighton is especially interesting as the 12th-rated offense and 25th-rated defense anchored by big man Ryan Kalkbrenner.
No. 13 and beyond: Wisconsin…and beyond
At the end of the day, it’s tempting to pick teams that still rank in the top 25 on both ends of the floor. It makes sense. But if you now also believe that only the best of the best offensive units can win it, then unfortunately you can’t pick everybody’s favorite hustle teams like Houston (No. 15 O, No. 1 D), Marquette (No. 19 O, No. 18 D), Iowa State (No. 50 O, No. 2 D) or Tennessee (No. 33 O, No. 3 D).
Right?
Finally, if you’re like me and wondering where all the Cinderellas are, well, that’s because mid-majors don’t fit neatly into these adjusted efficiency ranking thanks to strength of schedule. This was about picking the National Champion after all. Cinderellas like Drake, Charleston, James Madison, or to a lesser extent, St. Mary’s or New Mexico can’t actually win the whole thing.
Right?
Welcome back, to the Madness.
